Conflict Gaza: 3 Reasons Israel Will Restart the War in May – 2 Last Chances to Stop the Carnage
The headlines say "ceasefire." The ground truth says the war never ended.
Since October 2025, Israeli forces have pushed the "Yellow Line" westward, expanding their territorial control to 59 percent of the Gaza Strip. Troops have moved from the Lebanese front back into Gaza. Families continue to pull bodies from the rubble in Khan Younis and Deir el-Balah.
According to local medical sources, 828 Palestinians have been killed since the so-called "truce" began. Now Israel's security cabinet is expected to meet to discuss resuming full-scale operations.
If you thought Gaza was at peace, you haven't been reading the news.
Trigger #1 — Hamas Refuses to Disarm (Israel's Red Line)
The core issue that will restart the conflict is disarmament.
Negotiations between Hamas and the Peace Council have reached the brink of complete collapse. The parties failed to reach an agreement on the key issue: the disarmament of militants and the transition to the second phase of the deal.
Hamas's main demands are: full implementation of the first phase of the agreement, withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza, and guarantees for the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
Israel has communicated its response: it will not back down. The IDF plans to remain in strategic positions. Troops will not withdraw beyond the so-called "yellow line."
A senior official in the Israeli military's General Staff told Channel 15 that an additional round of fighting was "almost inevitable," citing the refusal of Hamas to surrender its weapons.
Trigger #2 — US-Israel Rejection of Palestinian Proposal
The US and Israel have rejected a paper submitted jointly by Palestinian factions, including Hamas, that links their disarmament to Palestinian statehood and security guarantees.
A senior Palestinian source told Middle East Eye that the mediators "and the Americans both refused the Palestinian factions' paper and passed threatening messages from the Americans to the Palestinian negotiating team."
The central point of contention is the US and Israel's insistence that Hamas and other groups disarm before a technocratic government is established in Gaza.
Palestinian factions insisted that disarmament cannot come before a political resolution that includes Palestinian statehood. The US and Israel have framed it as a prerequisite for any durable ceasefire.
The gap is unbridgeable. And when diplomacy fails, war fills the void.
Trigger #3 — Israel's Cabinet to Discuss Resuming Operations
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu abruptly cancelled a scheduled security cabinet meeting on Sunday, opting instead for smaller consultations. Simultaneously, the military has ramped up pressure to resume hostilities.
The cabinet is expected to discuss the possibility of resuming widespread military operations, despite a ceasefire agreement in effect since last October. The fragile calm is on the brink of shattering.
Israeli officials have been clear: if Hamas does not disarm itself, "the IDF will return to fighting in Gaza in the near future to complete the mission."
The war machine is warming up. The diplomatic track is frozen.
Off-Ramp #1 — Linking Disarmament to Statehood (The Palestinian Demand)
There is one path that might stop the conflict. But it requires a US policy reversal that is unlikely.
Palestinian factions, including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, have universally rejected the disarmament prerequisite. Instead, they insist on linking security arrangements directly to comprehensive political rights.
"The resistance insists that disarmament is tied to the ambition of establishing a Palestinian state and a complete end to the occupation."
If the US and Israel decouple the issue of weapons from any political horizon — turning humanitarian relief into a tool for blackmail — the conflict will restart. If, instead, they agree to a political timeline that includes Palestinian statehood, there might be a chance.
But that chance is near zero.
Off-Ramp #2 — Humanitarian Aid Without Conditions
The US-backed Board of Peace, led by Nikolay Mladenov, has pushed a roadmap that would require the complete disarmament of Hamas within 281 days over five stages. The plan conditions humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and the opening of crossings on the phased handover of weapons.
Analysts have noted this strategy aims to turn the newly formed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NGAC) into a proxy security arm for the occupation.
The other off-ramp would be to provide humanitarian aid without disarmament conditions. But Israel and the US have rejected that approach. 600 aid trucks per day were agreed to under the ceasefire. Israel has repeatedly blocked them.
No aid, no reconstruction, no opening of crossings = no incentive for Hamas to moderate = more war.
What You Should Do — How to Track the Conflict
Step 1: Monitor Israeli cabinet decisions in the coming days. Any announcement of "limited operations" means full war is weeks away.
Step 2: Track the humanitarian metrics. If aid trucks continue to be blocked, the ceasefire is dead.
Step 3: Watch US statements. If Washington continues to back the disarmament-first framework, there will be no diplomatic solution.
Step 4: Do not wait for "official war declarations." The war has been ongoing. The next phase will simply be called "expanded operations."
Step 5: Prepare. Not for your safety — you are not in Gaza. Prepare your understanding. This conflict will not disappear from the news.
REAL EXAMPLE — How Ceasefires Fail
Ever since the October 2025 ceasefire, Israel has repeatedly breached the agreement.
By gradually pushing the ceasefire-established "Yellow Line" westward, Israeli forces have expanded their territorial control to 59 percent of the Strip, regularising their occupation through daily violations of the "ceasefire" and moving additional troops from the Lebanese front into Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
If a ceasefire isn't holding during the "pause," it won't hold during an escalation.
Your Turn
Do you think Israel will restart full-scale war in Gaza in May 2026? What signal would indicate that diplomacy has failed?
Comment: "The conflict in Gaza will restart because neither side trusts the other. The only question is how many civilians will die this time."
Map showing Israeli-controlled territory in Gaza (59%) — 1200×800
Infographic — "3 triggers, 2 off-ramps: Gaza conflict explained" — 1200×800